Archive for October, 2006

DNA Computing

Friday, October 20th, 2006

Scientific American reported that the DNA-based computers now can play Tic-Tac-Toe. Why is this a big deal? This is significant not because DNA-computers will all of a sudden replace conventional servers to power the enterprise. Conventional computing started out solving basic binary problems in the 1940s which is now paralleled with the 2002 announcement when DNA biological computers solving similar complexity problems. That was 4 years ago. Now we have a basic “thinking machine” under way. Conventional computing fueled by Moore’s law got us to enterprise class by the 1970s, client server the late 1980s, the web 1.0 by the 1990s.

DNA computing may do for enterprise and web computing what the first genome sequencing did for biotech. The question is what kind of enterprises will emerge as a result. What problems will be solved in new ways? The first applications are obviously biotech - currently targeting disease modeling, like the West-Nile virus. But is there an emergent DNA-Web infrastructure or just better modeling in biotech and nanotech?

The MAYA-II DNA computer:
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It even reminds me of the first Sinclair computer from 1982(below).
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Salesforce.com the SAP of the Saas World?

Friday, October 20th, 2006

Controversial as usual, Nick Carr’s insight into Salesforce.com’s Apex strategy is still definitely worth pondering. Almost all enterprise technology vendors are fighting for the Ultimate Platform or Infrastructure Utility position. Carr writes:

Now, I understand the rationale for the [salesforce.com's] decision: the infrastructure is the product. While Salesforce’s move opens up new opportunities for the firm, it also dramatically widens the competition it will face. Everyone from Microsoft to Google to Amazon is moving into the business of being an infrastructure utility. And, in an age of standardization, it will be interesting to see how customers react to the idea of running their enterprise applications in a private language. Is Salesforce the SAP of the SaaS world - and is that a good or a bad thing?

So the on-premise world has the choice of IBM’s Websphere, SAP’s Netweaver, Oracle’s Fusion MW and Microsoft .net as the unifying architecture. Of these SAP, Oracle and Microsoft command a dizzying array of 3rd party applications to “plug-in” to the platform and provide both functional richness and flexibility to the offering.

While Oracle and SAP have both on-demand and on-premise offerings Salesforce.com has the entire architecture based on SaaS and therefore did not have platform-play aspirations until this last week. With Apex it is now offering a “Platform through the Web” proposition which will broaden the platform wars that raged primarily on premise.

Maybe winning in Enterprise 2.0 will ultimately be about creating a standard platform that unifies on-premise and on-demand.

Communicating the revolutionary platform change in non-techno speak to the board rooms has been challenging for most CIOs.
Now that we are back in the growth (innovation) stage of the economic cycle in most industries and technology innovation dollars are still consumed by maintaining unwieldy infrastructure in most IT shops, the promise of the Platform, the liberation of process and technology innovation is bigger pressure than ever. Technology and process complexity is the ultimate barrier to growth so most companies will ultimately move to an infrastructure utility and this transition will be very interesting to watch over the next decade being fought out between the on-premise giants and the SaaS challengers.

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Strategic Creativity Killers

Wednesday, October 18th, 2006

It’s the season for strategic planning for most companies. Despite what I stated in my earlier post I still believe that business model changes are happening at an increasing rate. If you are like most companies, strategic planning takes place at some offsite in a reasonable climate with the leadership brainstorming away.

Dave Dafour’s list reminds us that this one time in a year we really, really need to think outside the box.

Here is his partial list of Creativity Killers: (please avoid them at all costs…)

  • Our place is different
  • We tried that before.
  • It costs too much.
  • That’s not my job.
  • They’re too busy to do that.
  • We don’t have the time.
  • Not enough help.
  • Not that again.

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Complexity as Growth Killer

Wednesday, October 18th, 2006

All of us technology professionals were supposed to make business simpler. Well, we failed. As I am working with companies with hundreds if not thousands of enterprise applications and multiple competing business models and processes in the same company it makes you wonder where this is all going.

The new buzzword in business improvement is complexity management. Most companies still do not understand the correlation between increased complexity (products, technologies, organizations) and the resulting growth or lack thereof.

Harvard Business Review had a great article on this topic titled Innovation vs Complexity:

As a company increases the pace of innovation, its profitability often begins to stagnate or even erode. The reason can be summed up in one word: complexity. The continual launch of new products and line extensions adds complexity throughout a company’s operations, and, as the costs of managing that complexity multiply, margins shrink.

They also point out that business wealth is created in the simplification of interactions between systems, processes and organizations.

That is where most studies are going. Internal complexity becomes the number one prohibitor of growth. It is not lack of customers, lack of talent, lack of products. in fact it is due to too many products, services, channels and talent. All major strategy shops are exploring this topic in recent articles from ATKearney, Bain, and Booz-Allen and McKinsey.

Complexity comes in many forms from product portfolio proliferation through diverging technologies to non-standard processes.

If you can afford the top strategy firms they could send you back to the drawing board and ask you to design your business from scratch as if your were selling one product to one customer. Then keep adding product lines and channels without adding unnecessary organizations or processes. It is amazing how an exercise like that paints a real best-in-class view of your business.

In my research complexity and uncertainty feed on each other. When businesses face uncertainty (and who doesn’t) they tend to create what I call safety buffers by adding people, procedures and technologies. Depending on the business it may be

  • excess inventory or capacity because the management does not trust the planning process or technology
  • excess people because the human glue is needed to ensure information flow in divergent processes
  • excess process and technology solutions because divergent organizations need more procedures and technology
  • excess innovation to meet unspecified customer needs

Complexity management may one day give us some guidelines on how to simplify and standardize businesses and show us companies that did go back to the proverbial drawing board. Until then new technologies will need to focus on simplicity, standardization and thereby making a small contribution to that elusive concept: sustainable growth.

As the Booz-Allen study so aptly stated when describing the role of technology providers:

Process complexity is one of the silent killers of profitability. Any time a new product is added or changed or a service level is increased without addressing complexity the result is a process that is a little more cumbersome and a little more costly. Over the long haul, many good strategies go wrong simply because of the drag created by all those incrementally increasing costs.

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Origin of Wealth - Pilot, Standardize, Scale

Tuesday, October 17th, 2006

A recent re-read of Eric Beinhocker’s tome Origin of Wealth reminded me of the essential lesson in innovation based business strategy, or in his view any business survival.

Beinhocker (who heads the economics think tank at McKinsey’s Global Institute) takes you through a wonderful historical journey to prove that businesses just like any organisms go through predictable evolutionary cycles:

  • Differentiate (by trying more effective ways)
  • Select (traits that work best)
  • Amplify (selected traits)

That is the gist of 540 pages of intense research and like anything profound - it is quite simple.

Most businesses (including our own) grows by trial and error innovating products or business models depending on our conviction of competitive advantage. Then we standardize on what seems to work best and scale it by adding resources (people, money) behind it.

The model of Pilot / Standardize / Scale has been an extremely rewarding strategy for us for many years to innovate new products, services and business models or sometimes all three. It is good to see that great minds confirm our efforts to, well, Differentiate.

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On Demand and Process Optimization

Monday, October 16th, 2006

Zoli had a great insight of a potential “Blue Ocean” emerging from the Saas/On Demand space. Saas vendors hold customer data and could develop the ability to offer statistical services ranging from benchmarking through process management to process optimization.
Today these offerings have not taken hold but I can imagine selective opt-in by businesses for higher value-add services like:

  • Process benchmarking - based on transaction data available voluntary participants could receive real-time comparison of their performance against their peers. These would be for areas not considered competitive edge, most notably finance (headcount allocation, transaction costs, cost of service, billing cycles, DSO), human resources (rev per employee, retention metrics, training metrics, etc), procurement (supplier performance, DPO, etc).
  • Process management and optimization - develop systematic recommendations on how to tweak workflow, process steps to have a more streamlined, lower cost process. The system can monitor everything from dispute management (DSO) through supplier performance and recommend corrective actions (replace suppliers with a better one).

If we couple low user cost of on-demand with process optimization typically provided only by large-scale business process reengineering with ERP/CRM enablement then we have real value proposition. Low cost is important but as most companies move to growth mode from efficiency optimization we need more than cost savings to make on demand stick.

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Xerox Parc vs VC-funded Innovation

Monday, October 9th, 2006

A couple of weeks ago I was at Lucent headquarters where I saw their hall of fame, which is a walk down memory lane, in this case the highlights of innovation of Bell Labs over the years.

The trip reminded me of the great book “Open Innovation” by Harvard Professor Henry Chesbrough. It reviews how much innovation changed from the era of Bell Labs, Xerox Parc to today’s VC-funded innovations in startups.

His core question in the book is of Xerox Parc:


How could a company that possessed the resources and vision to launch a brilliant research center—not to mention the patience to fund the center for more than thirty years, and the savvy to incorporate important technologies from it—let so many good ideas get away?

Hopefully these ideas are no longer getting away given the vast network of angels, VCs continuing funding innovation. More importantly as startups’ exits are increasingly through corporate acquisitions vs. IPOs, it is clear that innovation has found a nice balance of inhouse R&D and acquired innovation (M&A) by the new corporate innovators like Google,Yahoo and others.

Innovate

While many technology companies are buying market share or expanding existing lines through acquisitions, the integration of new innovation continues as a major motive in M&A and more importantly as the fuel for the broadening innovation boom.

Mercer Consulting’s analysis of product cycles vs performance of high tech companies points to product saturation as the main killer of growth. They argue something that maybe counter to the history of technology firms: that technology companies built on innovation (vs marketing and other competencies) are highly unstable business models.
In that sense outsourcing or acquiring innovation may be the lowest risk business model if it is combined with increased focus on customer relationships, improved customer economics and better value propositions. Their research points out:

Very few high-tech companies have converted a hot product into an enterprise relationship. Those that have bucked the bottle-rocket pattern have done so by taking a customer-centric approach to stabilize against the inherent risks of product-centric growth.

So their prescription is marketing and customer intimacy as core competence and product innovation as an outsourced capability. It sure is in line with what we can observe with Microsoft, Google, Yahoo and Oracle and there is a lesson for all the Web2.0 innovators in the M&A queue.

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The Strategic Plan That Isn’t

Friday, October 6th, 2006

It is the season of corporate planning in most companies with various senior leadership teams moving to offsite locations reflecting on their strategic vision. Nowadays not only the CEO’s leadership team develops strategic plans but almost any function.

In fact I was asked to comment on a “Strat Plan” of an IT department at a client and I had to point out that their most important project “retiring AS400 servers” really had no strategic value.

Strategy is the most overused business term and most people forget that in business it means competitive advantage or as Michael Porter defined it:

It means deliberately choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique mix of value.

I have to agree with Tom Peters when he argues that most strategic planning efforts really aren’t strategic at all and he quotes various strategy gurus to prove the point. Henry Mintzberg (former chairman of Strategic Planning Society) in his classic book warned about the decline of strategic planning 12 years ago and it came to roost.

You know you are working on something strategic if the knowledge of your strategic plan would have directors breaking out in sweat in boardrooms at your competition.

Let’s just call most of the annual planning efforts operating plans. I do not think it is a derogatory word and while it may take away some of the sense of significance of the drafters of such plan it does remind us that gaining competitive ground needs something extra to happen.

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The notion that operating plans are strategic plans build on various favorite myths (and probably many more):

Senior management role makes you strategic. You need to think about it. Unless you are brought on board from a strategy firm or your company’s corporate development or M&A team you have not spent any time thinking about strategy. This is not a skill you grow on the day of your promotion. Many organizations (typically sales and product development) naturally have competitive streaks but they hardly dominate.

Long term plans are strategic. No. Plans that edge out competition are strategic. Everything else is tactical. Well, long term plans are long term with broader margins of error and lower accuracy. Unless they focus on what gives you practical advantage in the market they have no strategic relevance.

We are clear on our competitive advantage. You can ask various groups in the same company about their competitive advantage and you will get answers ranging from “we hire the best”, “we are lowest cost operation”, “we have the best channels”, “best products” and almost always “great service”. Almost never the same answer. Therefore it will not add up to a plan.

Strategy happens at the top. Well, no. Strategy happens in the trenches and while strategic thinking should happen on the top most often only the governance (metrics, targets) are established by the CxO team. Very often the line organizations are left to their own devices on figuring out how they are going to reach those targets and by doing so actually formulate strategy (which is about beating the competition).

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Strategic Advantage and Strategic Rewards

Thursday, October 5th, 2006

Even companies that understand what their strategic advantage is have the hardest time aligning reward structures to match the strategy.

In many cases a firm may break away from the pack in manufacturing with superior customer service but maintain higher rewards for engineers and backoffice functions due to industry conventions. Similarly a service company shifting to productize its offerings may still reward their professional services staff better than their newfound development or engineering staff.

Many of the same companies believe that they are paying market rates but that may not be enough. If they are pursuing a differentiation strategy than they will have to attract and reward the most differentiated (best) employees and suppliers in that category to maintain competitive advantage.

It means that in areas where you want to have competitive advantage you will have to pay top dollar and in other areas you will pay the “going market rate”.

Jack Welch in the book Winning pointed out time after time that companies have a hardest type assessing talent and retain the highest performers and get rid of the lowest performers. In this sense it is true of employees and suppliers.

I have yet to meet a company that does not believe that they hire only A-players... Who is hiring the B and C players? It is an unfortunate and inefficient myth. As a motivational speaker told us in our first partner meeting in my E&Y days: “Half the people in this room are below average”. It is true and not necessarily a bad thing. You will not be able to reward and motivate the A-players in non-strategic areas and similarly you have to create great opportunities and rewards for A-players in strategic areas.

Companies that under-reward players in strategic areas will eventually erode their competitive advantage which holds true for most companies with one size fits all compensation structures and procurement procedures.

To win, you have to reward the real A players in your areas of strategic advantage and happily hire and retain the B and C players everywhere else and keep those motivated with specific performance metrics.

The following table may serve as a strategy guide for building the right teams. My earlier post also describes characteristics of A-players in any successful environments.

Strategy Reward

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Hertz vs Thrifty’s Customer Interface

Wednesday, October 4th, 2006

Today Hertz was sold out and I had to rent from Thrifty at the airport. Our corporate provider is Hertz where I had Gold Service so I signed up on the web for the equivalent Thrifty Blue Chip service. I guess that is where similarities ended. It absolutely intrigues me that in the commodity business of auto rentals there can be such a difference in processes. To get your car is basically a 3-step process at Hertz but it takes Thrifty 9 steps.

This makes me warm and fuzzy how good enterprise applications could make a drastic difference in perceived customer value as it is the case of Hertz. Thrifty could introduce a nice web app where I could pick my car, print my rental agreement, provide credit card and check out. And that would not even be anything revolutionary but would sure make it convenient.

Here is my flow through the world of auto rentals and hopefully my last journey through Thrifty’s workflow…

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Update (10/10) I just returned my rental car and to be fair the return process is as smooth with Thrifty as it is with Hertz. So as long as the front end of the process is streamlined we may have competition again…

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How to get entrepreneurial employees

Wednesday, October 4th, 2006

You can have the best product, the greatest market if your employees do not have the juice then you will not win.
Ever since I joined the large enterprise world 3 years ago after over a decade of startup and partnership stints, I have been constantly puzzled why large corporations have a special breed of employees that just do not have the energy, juice, drive like the ones I worked with in my high growth business days.

MIT professor Joseph Hadzima had an interesting lecture that helped me reflect on what he calls Entrepreneurial Employees.
He described seven characteristics that make the people with the Right Stuff stand out from the cubicle-bound corporate mainstay:

  • Ability to deal with and thrive on risk
  • Be results oriented, accountable for results
  • Energy. Lots of it.
  • Growth potential. Having what it takes to get to the next level
  • Team player and less politics. Seriously.
  • Multitasking ability. Being able to perform more than one role
  • Self-improvement oriented.

I guess I just created a little checklist for myself. I have the Wharton MBA recruiting day ahead and I think I may have created the ultimate filter for bringing entrepreneurism back in the mix.

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Can you really Prosper?

Wednesday, October 4th, 2006

As business models go Prosper is definitely one of the interesting combinations of risk management, money making, contribution, auctioning and social networking. You can sign up with them if you need a loan or if you have some money to lend. What is really fascinating how Prosper built in social networks to increase the trust levels of borrowers (lending to people in your local community, people from the same college, same background, same predicament).

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As a borrower you publish your profile and your elevator pitch on why you can be trusted and why your project is worth funding and why you are good for the debt. You can compel emotional support for caring for a loved one or spread the risk of building your next business.
If you have good credit the going rate is around 8% if your credit is really bad you should expect to pay above 26%. The rates seem to be in line with market rates for good borrowers and certainly beat credit card borrowing costs for many.

As a lender you get to spread your risk by syndicating loans with other lenders. You can pursue a pure capitalist agenda of maximizing profit (lending to a high risk venture @19% interest) or more of a social agenda and lending to the idealist building a daycare at 4%. You get to realize 8% and better with good borrowers at reasonable risk. Remember, you can spread your risk with many lenders and across multiple loans.

As any good market, borrowers can bid up interest rates they are willing to pay to attract lenders and lenders can bid rates down to get the borrower with the lowest risk.

Either way observing Prosper you can learn a lot in this petri dish of capital allocation on what people are compelled to invest in, take risks for and why. Market driven interest rates get set for various endeavors raging from social (paying for the wedding) to business turnarounds.
The rich data collected by Prosper would be fascinating research on how social networks get built around money.

As the business model goes, Prosper charges 1% one time closing fee to the Borrower and 0.5% annual servicing fee to the Lender. Lenders also get collection agency services at extra charge. All around a reasonable value proposition.

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Reverse Engineering Windows Vista Pricing

Tuesday, October 3rd, 2006

Zoli’s summary of Windows Vista’s pricing scheme raises interesting questions beyond the “how much is it really worth” analysis.
In a well functioning competitive product category it would be supply and demand. So at $400 for the Vista Ultimate how would Microsoft asses the right price?

  • Competitive pricing? - Assuming that consumers will consider competitive OS products and be willing to take the effort to switch… There are basically 3 competitive choices: 1) postpone the purchase which is free and 2) Linux is free 3) OSX is about $129 plus hardware change costs. So unless Vista is priced below the cost of switching to the lowest cost Mac (unlikely) then Microsoft is not pricing based on competitive pricing.
  • Skimming ? - Another pricing strategy is commonly skimming- which is charging a high price during product introductions to early adopters. Historically Microsoft held their product prices over the years. In fact Windows 2000 is still probably the same price as it was coming out - so skimming is unlikely strategy from Microsoft.
  • Prestige Pricing ? - Is Microsoft persuing a prestige pricing strategy? Is Vista the Rolls Royce of operating systems? Considering that Windows is the de facto operating system regardless of market segmentation prestige pricing really has no meaning.
  • Revenue Management? Is pricing established to hit a certain revenue goal assuming very low price sensitivity? Does Microsoft assume that the majority of customers have limited price sensitivity and is basically a price taker? In OEM sales the OS is bundled but provides incremental revenue over XP pricing so there is a definite safe revenue target to hit

Who is really buying at the $400 list price anyway? Most likely you will buy it with a new PC bundle for a couple of hundred more. So the $400 is really the $260 upgrade price for the retail buyer, probably early adopter or the mid- to high-end user with expensive hardware that will not be replaced.

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